The Best Free Start

[magicgeek]

Rolling a Turn 1 King and not doing it requires a real reason.
If you have a better first turn, prove it.

Sword Strider, Boromir, Merry, Legolas and Gimli to Moria

Sword Strider, Boromir & Merry to Eastenmet. Gimli toward DEW. Legolas to Lorien.

Sword Strider & Boromir to Minas T. Merry to Fanghorn. Gimli to Old Forest Rd. Legolas sits in Lorien

WoW It's The King


Any 'separate' card with a palantir can substitute for the opening sword. Dead Men with a palantir can substitute for the third sword. Using a ring to make that muster die a sword is worthwhile. Subbing a second WoW is always easy, or a third. Four WOW is just plain greedy.

Only a ZERO eye turn would tempt me to move 4 times instead. Zero eyes and needing to use a ring, now there is a decision. And maybe they have lots of eyes.

Immediately get the Ents to stop the Voice. Get Galadriel as soon as possible. Get the King to Rohan for Dead Men. When you get the F!F!F! or the dwarf book you are ready.This leaves Gandalf and a Hobbit to look into the mists. Smeagol is a bonus only if Gollum isnt there, so take corruption for a while.

Grey Havens / Shire should get Legolas instead of lorien if your opponent attacked there last game. Otherwise a couple of dwarf elites in Ered Luin is a good idea. Gandalf returning to Grey havens is often a good idea too.

Gandalf's draw character card ability works on 'separate and do stuff' cards, even if you dont separate. The blue tiles are much more palatable when you draw a card.

While rolling a first turn King is a great idea, the chances of it are not that huge really.

For example, line up 4 WoW.
Turn the dice so that you can only see swords on the two base sides.
Just roughly, half of each die fits the bill.
1/16 sounds about right. (yeah it is a little high)
After this come all of the "assisted" first turn ring kings
3 of the four dice need to be swords or WoW's, plus a random.
This is heaps more likely, about 4 times as likely, ish.
I think overall it should happen about 25% of the time.

If any of you feel the need to do the calculations, I would be interested.

I am kinda interested in just 'Prerolling' the 1296 outcomes, condensing them down to actual differences, and then working out all possible outcomes. eg there is only 1 roll that has 4 WoW, but there are 32 ways of rolling 3 Sword and 1 Wow. I think. been a little while

This would require a very restrictive set of paramaters though, no Galadriel from Sauron, and no card play seem prerequisites. Turn 1 King is the best going, a close second is a distant 4 Sprint, with Galadriel an immobile third. Only Mr Weasley can better that, and his crayon rubs off my card sleeves.

XXX

So what happens when you roll the other side of the dice.
How about 4 Musters? What to do with a Muster / Flag?
Personally, I would always use it as a muster in the first 3 turns.

Galadriel looks good, but the Elven muster pool is shallow.
Getting Rohan seemed an excellent idea, but then I realised that the Free wants Shadow to attack there. And the fact that you cant actually go to war coz you are not active. Galadriel looks like the only choice.

How about a siege tower in M-T, Lorien, Helms Deep and Grey Havens?

XXXXX

4 palantirs is interesting too, because which deck to draw from?
At the start, Gandalf can play, but troops at the start are SO valuable.

The Character cards are the wrong choice when you roll lots of palantirs, i think. Certainly once Gandalf is dead, the strat deck has got to be the deck of choice when forced to draw.

There are 26 cards
4 Blue Tiles, HooRay ! in 8 turns they might help me!
4 Separate, 3 do nuthin at start, There & Back is good
3 Companion cards, The Wizards staff it is stronger than Boromirs horn.
Mithril Coat

2 gollum cards,
4 King
1 boromir
Eagles
Mirror
New Rings
Wind from the west
3 Ents

I count 13 or 14 that can be used usefully on the opening plays. But so what?
None of their effects are even remotely impressive. The Blue Tiles might pay off in 8 turns. The separate cards are so good that they might as well have just been a character action instead of the palantir needed to play them. Healing corruption that isnt there sucks.

Companions need to get far away to DEW, or across the mountains (Greyshire / Rivendell), and the separate cards wont let you get there.
The separate cards are able to substitue palantirs for swords when you use the card, or are card neutral with Gandalf.
So they are good because they can substitute for something good, provided you roll OK.

[mrweasely]

This post seems somehow...familiar?

In the 3-er I played yesterday, the FSP had moved 5 spaces undetected by early in turn 3. The Balrog had come out. So then I played There and Back Again to put Lego in Woodland Realm, followed by A Power Too Great. Thus, the elves were "mustered" down the political track three times without ever spending a muster die result, thus preserving the one muster I'd rolled in the game to that point for bringing out Galadriel.

Minas Tirith went under siege that turn, and having gotten no musters had 5r1e1L at the time it was invested (Osgiliath got a lucky retreat). Gondor buffed Pelargir to two-regulars and an elite. Then Cirdan shuttled in two more elites. Finally, Gwaihir brought Strider and Merry to Pelargir. So impressive was this stunt that Gondor crowned Strider king on the spot. (Note the inherent racism: all Merry got was a bowl of porridge and an atta-boy).

All in all, it was a great, elegant opening for the free. Not quite as good as MG's, but then again I wasn't able to choose my die results.

(And as long as you're choosing everything ahead of time, the 3rd die might as well be a palantir or muster, and use it to play Fear! Fire! Phones!.)

Moving Aragorn to Rohan to play Dead Men's Bluff is ok, but often I'll prefer moving the bulk of the Minas Tirith garrison to Osgiliath, to threaten all kinds of mischief ... the shadow has to go really slow against that. If they're still there by the endgame, though, and you're not going for FP Military Victory, be sure and move them back, I've seen more shadow armies get "under the thumbnail" for cheap wins than I'd care to admit.

[mrweasely]

I feel like I did a numerical analysis of the t1 Aragorn, but now I've lost it.

Note that there are many palantir cards, and two muster/palantir cards that allow the "back half" of the dice to be used to move or seperate chums.

Heck, with the shady We Prove the Swifter, the FP can theoretically roll 6 dice on turn two:

• Character: Break off Strider to Moria
  
• Palantir: We Prove the Swiftest to Minas Tirith
  
• WoW: King me
  
• Muster: Galadriel
  

XXX

With 4 musters, Galadriel, no question. Early elves means Sauron has to pay lots of orcs and time for his first two Elven strongholds, after which perhaps The North or The Dwarves will be able to protect another.

(Aside: Its just starting to sink in to my thick head that elven elites are more valuable than Catapults, yet once an elven stronghold has three elites and a regular, they have about the same effects in terms of delay and enemy troops killed. (Assuming the catapult results in siege superiority). The problem with the Catapult is its not explosive. You can't sally with a catapult. Gwaihir won't deliver to a regular and two catapults, but he will drop off a nest full of companions for two elites and a regular. So...elites are better, but scarcer. Interesting)

XXX

With Palantirs, I'd go for characters. My logic is not watertight, but basically 14 of the 24 cards in the character deck are playable very early, and with Gandalf's guide ability they should be.

[jakub]

I think, to fortress Lorien first, to have an equal (or more) trebuchets than siege towers and than, when time to attack of SA will come - NO SIEGE NOR TREBUCHET SUPERIORITY: the fight will continue as in basic version, and Galadriel will muster elites.

[mrweasely]

Oh I donno, its all so subjective. Its not even clear, for example, that the 3-die king plus FSP@1 is better than the 4 die king and companions smeared all over the map.

[mrweasely]

Its true I count the healers in the 14 or so useful ones, because its usually possible to move and get a corruption point or two fairly quickly.

Phial of Galadriel looks like it was a complete waste of time, except for in those 10% of games it wins. The list of cards that win games 10% of the time is pretty short: Cruel Weather + Friends. Maybe Mithril Coat. Therefore it looks pretty good to me.

By the way, I don't really like playing Mithril Coat and Sting early, since its just bait for Worn with Sorrow And Toil. It is one of the cards that I'll hold in my hand all game long until a hobbit assumes the guideship.

The value of the special hunt tiles drops off radically as you climb the stairway to Mt Doom. Depending on the size of the hunt pool, corruption, and many other factors, I sometimes won't play the "Elven Fasion Accessories" if I've proceeded even one step in Mordor.

Playing them turn 1 is okay, since you get a card as "interest" in your early investment. I'm not saying its a great option, but what else are you gonna do with your palantir? Play Dead Men of Dunharrow?

I'm also not saying you should card cycle away the healers just to get more cards, I'm saying that you seed your hand with lots of character cards on turn 1, move the FSP aggressively on turns 2+, take damage as corruption, and then heal it using the cards, while cycling then.

Maybe I worry too much about corruption. I'm like a depression baby, except instead of the depression, it was the WK card cycler.

[mrweasely]

If you don't think the seperate cards are any good, consider that the FSP is never turned back by corruption anymore, its just a flat race to sink ~20 swords into character movement. So where should the swords be going? I like to seperate with cards.

[magicgeek]

If "it's just a race to sink 20"
then
how does "Phial of Galadriel win 10% of games" ?


Gandalf + King turn one works better with we are written in crayon.


I do not believe it is merely a race.
It was merely a race in the old days, back when the Free had no other hope. Now, the free have many options.

Sink 20 dice into the FSP against a first turn Hunty Dude, and you aint in Mordor yet.

As far as single cards swinging games. . .
Sure, but none of those cards are going to be played by Gandalf on turn 1. (yay blue tiles)
Swords in Eriador can be the winning play on turn 1, because it stops the shadow going near Grey shire for the game!

[mrweasely]

magicgeek said:

If "it's just a race to sink 20"
then
how does "Phial of Galadriel win 10% of games" ?

Well, okay, you got me.

On the other hand, surely you've seen it swing games: Softening the average corruption dished out by the hunt bag, allowing the FSP to risk a quadruple Mordor move, regardless of Gally's ring supply. Also, it doesn't reveal the FSP, saving a fraction of a die. I've seen it win many times. Pre-expansion, it was almost a precondition for a FP ring win - which is why the FSP won about 10% of the time, not 0%

If you want, I can try dusting off the Strider Sprint Simulator, and we can see how it effects those games, where the FSP was dying to eye-suicide often.

I do not believe it is merely a race.
It was merely a race in the old days, back when the Free had no other hope. Now, the free have many options.

I certainly am unknowledgeable about the spread companions over the map like butter on Turn 1 strategy. Since you seperate virtually all companions on Turn 1, might this be the reason why you don't care for the companion seperators on future turns?

The Free seem to be winning about 66% with Gandalf the Grey, Galadriel, Aragorn approach, even against the best Shadow strategy (which I think is DEW-North, no Balrog). This is only my intuition after ~10 games, and each game with a blunder or two, so take it for what its worth. Basically, the ball's in the Shadow's court to come up with something to stop the FSP. My next guess is Aragorn denial...we'll see how that pans out.

Using Dead men on turn 1 for a turn 1 King sounds great to me.
Maybe I am missing something.

I was speaking in the context of a 4-palantir initial roll. I guess you could still use it in a contrived situation like this

• Gwaihir to Moria (redraw Dead Men)
  
• Fear! Fire! Phones! to Eastmenet
  
• Dead Men of Dunharrow
  

but it hasn't exactly happened to me yet.

As far as single cards swinging games. . .
Sure, but none of those cards are going to be played by Gandalf on turn 1. (yay blue tiles)
Swords in Eriador can be the winning play on turn 1, because it stops the shadow going near Grey shire for the game!

If the SP correctly exploits the political track, two scattered elites and a strategy card don't amount to a hill of beans. I personally don't cheese off the North until the endgame, and if I cheese off the Dwarves early, I'd tend towards Rivendell over Havens, since At War dwarves really are party poopers there.

The only places you need to get to are the far away lands (DEW or across the mountains (Greyshire / Rivendell). The separate cards wont let you get there most of the time.
The separate cards are able to substitue palantirs for swords when you use the card, or are card neutral with Gandalf.
So they are good because they can substitute for something good, provided you roll OK.
In short, the separate cards do suck.

I understand your point of view, and your point sort-of makes sense. But I think you're just reiterating palantir << character. Once you get over the fact that that's a fact, then the seperators are a nice way to "convert" your palantirs into turbo-charged swords.

I Will Go Alone is the worst of the bunch.
Gwaihir is excellent & flexible.
Swifter is now even better than Gwaihir, since it moves or seperates as well, and gives you a 3-die Aragorn.
There and Back Again makes the Balrog wish he'd never been born.
;D

[magicgeek]

But if 'palantir << character' then there is something fundamentally wrong with the game.

palantir == character (well, it is meant to)


The NW corner has 5 hit points. Swords in Eriador adds 4 and draws a card.
Name your Strategy deck card that is 'a hill of beans' on turn 1?


'Gandalf the Grey, Galadriel, Aragorn' = 66% Free (apparantly)
So how come you dont know about spreading the companions like butter? It is the easiest way of doing the above.

Since I seperate virtually all companions on Turn 1, seperate cards are particularly crap on future turns. Makes it easy to know which card to discard though. The only real difference is I put Boromir & Gimli & Legolas where they can be useful on turn 1, since Gandalf draws the card anyway.


I have been thinking about Balrog being bad for DEW North too.
The Angry WK has always been a poor fit for Dew North.
I think Mr Hunty might be a nice fit.

Mr Hunty being used as a reroller is actually quite nasty against Strider. They never get out from under him, so he almost counts as a placed eye, and his minion dice means he counts for two!
Not that I have actually played this way.

A critical part of Magic is the speed that games can be played.
Working out what does which, and who should do it when is quickly assimilated.
The massive cross polination of groups means a rapid understanding of the changes when they come.

WotR isn't like that.
The expansion has been released for months, and the people talking loudest about have played 10ish games, not thousands.
It just takes so long in a modern life to find time and opponents for a long winded wart game.

[mrweasely]

MG knows this, but for the benefit of our studio audience:

Just as it is silly to play Hill Trolls on an army at winter quarters in Dol Guldur, it is silly to play Guards of the Citadel on an unthreatened Minas Tirith.

The strength of these cards lies not so much in the troops they give, but in when they introduce errors into the opponent's assessment of the odds.

The goal of the Free People's military is to break sieges.

In the "siege lifecycle", the SP first musters troops at his settlements. Then he pays some high overhead to march them to their target. Then he pays several dice to reduce the target to rubble. If he runs out of troops, the siege is broken, and he has to start out all over again. (or resort to his own card devilry!)

Therefore, it is much better to hold Swords in Eriador or The Power of Tom Bombadil, until the Dunlanders are in Cardolan or Buckland, so as to suprise them when its expensive for them to increase their horde.


__________________________________________________

I look forward to trying the "companion butter" opening. Its much more attractive with a verifiable Aragorn. I'm just waiting for a game where I roll C C M W on turn 1.

___________________________________________________

Mr Hunty being used as a reroller is actually quite nasty against Strider. They never get out from under him, ...

I thought Chief doesn't see or know when they're revealed, only when they're declared...Not that I've played Strider sprint in the expansion either. Gandalf's too strong.

But even Gandalf needs a break now and again. Usually when there are around 6 cards in hand. That would be a better than usual time to appoint Strider as guide.

____________________________________________________

As to the size of the community ... yeah. I've played at least one of the expansion games with 8 people, only 2 of which were online.

Its starting to dawn on MrWeasely that the optimal opponent for an inexperienced player is not, in fact, MrWeasely, who has played maybe 100 games, and who reads BGG at least twice a day, but is more like MrsWeasley, who occassionally forgets to move the large army in Westmnet into Helm's Deep before the five wolves at the fords crush it for VPs 9 and 10.

New players also get annoyed at me when they ask about Ithillien, and I tell them they're either asking about Last Battle or Faramir's Rangers. This world-wearyness on my part does not increase their fun.

3 player is usually more fun in these situations. If I play Isengard, then there's strict non-communication. If I play Free, they're allowed to chat amongst themselves as much as they want, even shooing me away from earshot for secret conferences at the table.

[magicgeek]

And then I started thinking about all those other cases where you roll between 4 musters and "C C W x'

for instance 'M M C W'
Is just not quite anything really.
Obviously the Muster should be used 2nd last (to get Galadriel)
and the Will should be used last just in case (Galadriel / Gandalf)

But what do you do with the rest, and those 2 when you can't?
Using a ring to convert the C into an M and get Galadriel is OK, I spoze.


Moving the FSP twice (W + C) and muster the Elves twice is nice, but what happens when you roll a solo Will next turn? My Belief is that you must get the most power you can, as quickly as possible, so instead. . .

Character, separate Aragorn, Boromir, Hobbit, Gimli, Gandalf to Moria
Muster (Elven Ring) move guys, Aragorn + Boromir + Hobbit to Fanghorn, Gimli + Gandalf to Old Forest Rd
Muster the ENTS
WoW get Gandalf to do his Laundry.

The last 3 steps are assuming that Saruman has already entered play. If this is the expected start, I think Saruman should arrive on the last shadow die. The first die on the Free's 2nd turn must be used to muster the Ents, and stop the voice.

This turn 1 sequence breaks the voice, the Free get 5 dice turn 2, and strider can promote with any WoW.
Legolas + a hobbit is not a whole lot to leave in the FSP, oh well, suck corruption, move slowly and hope Smeagol arrives.
Think about what happens if you do not roll a WoW for the rest of the game. (Yes it happens). Think about what happens if you move the FSP a couple of times, muster a random nation, and then next turn roll 'W M M M', you is stuffed.

The problem with this turn 1, is what happens if they dont get Saruman? Using a ring on the first turn and not getting Gandalf just aint that good. And what do you do with the last Muster and Wow?

If you have used a Sword to separate, and Isengaurd is not at war with you having 3 dice left, using a ring to move people seems foolish. Instead of spending the ring, Muster the Elves down one. Then Muster the Elves down another one.
And get Gandalf/ Galadriel if you can with the WoW, but a smart shadow wont let you, so move characters to set up next turns (Galadriel / Ents) + King + Gandalf when you roll 'M C W W'


Using palantirs effectively in the first few turns is tricky. Trying to work out a prerecorded 'Do this. . .' list is not very easy
That will be next.

X X X
And you cant get out from Mr Hunty.
OK, being revealed means the FSP is in a different area, but they cannot move until they have hidden.
Move Mr Hunty onto them in that window.
You cannot escape a passionate Mr Hunty

He does have some problems though, being able to generate 4 rerolls when you only have 2 Eyes is a tad frustrating.

[magicgeek]

Palantirs are tricky, they just are.

Using them effectively requires a certain amount of understanding about how the different actions are equivalent, but the special thing that the card does is very specific and so has a pay off. Lots of players do this inherently, it is still worth understanding.

For instance, instead of just drawing 2 cards each per turn, . . .
1) Both the Free and Shadow roll 2 extra dice each turn.
2) Every turn those 2 extra dice roll palantirs
3) The Free draw a Character card
4) The Shadow draws a Character card
5) The Free draw a Strategy card
6) The Shadow draws a Strategy card

This totally emulates the draw cards part of the turn.
I do not see why forcing players to (draw and discard) is better than allowing them play an event. Being forced to draw and discard is skillfull, it is also no fun and stops the game.

Anyhoo, my point is that every die result is meant to be as powerful as every other result, just more specific in how it can be used. Palantirs especially.

1 Action die = Draw 1 card = Play 1 Card = Move 2 Armies = Attack = character move = Characters do something special (politics, Voice) = move FSP = Hide FSP = Muster 2 small things = Muster 1 Big Thing (Minion, engine, elite) = Muster 1 nation

Now, while that is a great big list, bear with me.
Palantir + Palantir = 4 small musters worth, so getting an elite and a leader (3 small musters) as the standard card reinforcement really isnt very special. The bonus is that you can get them while under seige, and before war is declared, or both.

Often there is a bonus of one kind or another. Down a politics (Rohan), draw a card but no leader (Elves), draw a card but no leader and 2 regulars (Dale). Cirdans ships get 2 elites, which is bang on the curve.

The biggest payoff in the reinforcement cards is Swords in Eriador where you get 2 Elites and a card, but that is in the backwaters.

If this template is forced onto the strategy deck, it all forms a very definite pattern. Claiming that a reinforcment card is not worth the effort does not work though, you cannot choose to not draw or play with the sub par cards.

The reason I am bothering to explain what may be screamingly obvious, is because trying to figure out when to play Elven Cloaks or Erebor reinforcements on turn 1 is really hard. Gandalf drawing an extra card means literally that Elven Cloak costs half what it does without Gandalf.

Still not sure playing the Elven Cloak is the right call.

[mrweasely]

I've been thinking about the equations you propose too. You certainly nailed the "sticker price" value.

But there's another way of assessing value. The actual utility of the move. After all, if all the moves produced the same value, then it wouldn't matter at all which moves were taken, and Sauron would be as happy mustering elites in Nurn as he would be moving DEW North.

So here's my estimated "real value" equations:

Half-Die Actions

• Move army. (with char OR army)
  
• Draw a card
  
• Muster politically, in such a way that the nation remains at peace.
  
• Recruit a regular/leader while at war
  
• Recruit an elite (while FP nation is nowhere near war)
  
• Activate 2+ nations in a WK-less game (e.g. There and Back Again or moving companions)
  
• Build catapult at non-threatened stronghold, or a doomed stronghold.
  
• Kill an enemy muster die in a region where they can just re-muster them.
  
• If you have an elven ring: get another elven ring
  

One Die Actions

• Muster to War
  
• Recruit an elite while at war
  
• Get a siege engine in a contested stronghold
  
• Kill an enemy muster die in a contested area where its hard for them to reinforce (e.g. Ents, Spirit of Mordor, well-played Eagles)
  
• Hide FSP
  
• Move FSP
  
• Get an elven ring if you haven't got one.
  

Decisive Actions

• Get an extra action die per turn (e.g. companion, minion)*
  
• Kill an enemy action die per turn (e.g. killing companion, minion) *
  
• Break a siege **
  
• Unchecked Military Build Up ***
  

Decisive actions are actions which are big swings, and also are hard to quantify exactly.

Items marked with '*' tend to generate one die per turn, so their value is calculated by the expected number of turns remaining.

Items marked with '**' generate dice equal to the number the enemy wasted in the siege, minus the dice you yourself wasted defending against the siege.

Items marked with '***' gives the Free tactical flexibility, particularly when rolling 6 dice per turn.

__________________________

Well I nattered on there a bit didn't I? The main take-away is that drawing cards is only worth half an action die, particularly for the FP, who has less vigor to play them.

[mrweasely]

magicgeek said:

[Seperate everybody and his brother]...This leaves Gandalf and a Hobbit to look into the mists. Smeagol is a bonus only if Gollum isnt there, so take corruption for a while.

That leaves the core FSP down to 5 corruption absoroption. Sure you might get Wizard's Staff and Smeagol. But its equally likely you'll get neither of them, and tiles circa Noman Lands will be 3-2r-1-eye-2, leaving the FSP at 9 corruption. With that kind of corruption, would you bother trying getting into Mordor? Isuldur's Bane can lose you the game real quick.

I cautiously renew my theorey that the bulk of the fellowship needs to defend Frodo, at least initially. Giving up 10 levels of companions on the first turn means the Fellowship loses the ability to influence the game clock. Turns where the FP rolls sword-sword-sword-sword-palantir are much less useful when Frodo has to creep along the ocean floor on battery power for fear of depth charges tearing his tin-can-thin hull.

It does sound like a fun game though.