Which side has a better chance of winning?

[Alexfrog]

A poll on the game balance...

I think its quite even.

[andypalmer]

Fellowship needs lucky dice to win.

[Alexfrog]

Interesting! If I was forced to choose one side to have the advantage, I'd probably pick light side!

Why is shadow stronger? The light side can spend some effort shoring up defenses, to buy enough time, and then race in the fellowship, using some guys to avoid corruption, getting down to gollum before mordor, and then entering and destroying the ring.

[andypalmer]

Why is the shadow stronger? Because with average dice, I can score a Shadow Military victory before they reach the Cracks of Doom.

[Alexfrog]

Maybe your opponent is bad at defending? Or alternately, they dont move the fellowship fast enough?

I cant really say which side is stronger at this point, I've won every time (7), except my first game, from either side...which means I need to play more, against opponents with more experience.

[Belisarius]

I'm in a similar situation as Alex above, as I have won now three games in a row, but all as the FP (and all three have been military). I have yet to play Shadow. I believe my opponent has been making mistakes though, and I'm desirious of trying my hand at Shadow. Nonetheless, based on the difficulty of conquering strongholds and the fact the FP only needs 4 VP to win, it seems to me the fellowship player has a slight edge.

Still, I need to play against more opponents.

[andypalmer]

Belisarius,

You need some more opponents It's generally agreed that FP Military victories, while possible, are anomolies and are all but unseen against experienced SP opponents.

[Marc Grad]

I think this game is fairly well balanced, and I think the person with the better luck in any particular game will win out.

That being said, since both sides require a different play style to win, I think some folks out there are naturally inclined to be better Shadow players and others are better Free People Players.

If I had to answer, I would say the Shadow seems to be the easier of the two to play well.

[BerZerg]

I would say the SP wins the game on solid play -- ie, make no strategic mistakes, such as sieges failing to end in victory. The FP wins on reacting in the right way to hostile moves, making the right threats to distract action dice away from the hunting track and of course the lucky dice rolls. The FP is more dependent on luck, since less dice/draws have a greater impact, while the SP cancels out a lot of bad luck by sheer numbers.

The balance is very good in this game, which surprises me, because of its strong asymmetric nature. Despite the good balance, I think the SP has a slightly better chance of winning.

[eXistenZ]

I think in theory the game is balanced, but in practice SP has a slight edge. But this is just because SP strategy is more straightforward (muster, move, besiege n times), while FP requires more experience, more things to look after, and definitely more choices to make (separate companions or not? move or not? kill a companion or take corruption?). I think the luck weight is somehow balanced: FP needs proper action dice rolls (that's the reason of the priority in using elven rings), but SP needs good rolls while besieging.
My basic strategy, on both sides, is by the way to maximize action dice number as faster as possible, because more choices = more chances to win!

[Alexfrog]

eXistenZ said:

I think in theory the game is balanced, but in practice SP has a slight edge. But this is just because SP strategy is more straightforward (muster, move, besiege n times), while FP requires more experience, more things to look after, and definitely more choices to make (separate companions or not? move or not? kill a companion or take corruption?). I think the luck weight is somehow balanced: FP needs proper action dice rolls (that's the reason of the priority in using elven rings), but SP needs good rolls while besieging.
My basic strategy, on both sides, is by the way to maximize action dice number as faster as possible, because more choices = more chances to win!

You say that shadow is better with both players being inexperienced. I would guess that this is true. With two experienced players, I am not sure however.

As to the strategy of getting more dice ASAP, I think this is simply fundamental to the game. Those who dont do this will just get schooled by those who do.

Gandalf the White, Saruman and the Witch King are definitely in the category of "bring them in ASAP". As to Aragorn, over the course of the first 3 turns or so, you figure out if its a 'race' game or not. A race game being one where the shadow focuses most effort militarily, and the fellowship is enabled to move quickly, and things become a race of fellowship to mount doom versus shadow to 10vps. Here, you save Strider in the fellowship, and just move fast, using strider to turn musters into a 'hide', and eventually burn him to prevent corruption.

When its not a race game, and circumstances force you to move the fellowship slowly, then go crown Aragorn and get the die. It will help more that way in a longer game. Here, you want to defend long enough that the slower pace of your fellowship progress still makes it in time.

[Alexfrog]

Also, I think the 3p game is moderately in favor of the FP player.

4p, maybe a bit in favor of the FP. 2p, maybe a bit in favor of the shadow.

[maarten]

I believe the chances are even, if you have experienced players, but without experience, the FP harrdly stand a chance. Most cards for the SP are relatively easy to understand, their advantage is clear. But in order to use the FP cards you need to know what your doing. A lot of beginners also make the mistake of laying siege without enough units in their attacking armies. For the SP this mistake is not that big of deal, but for the FP it is a disaster.

[mrweasely]

This poll is old, 2005ish. If it were taken in May 2006, I wonder how it would go. I think the base game is AT LEAST 75%-25% favoring shadow, probably more like 85%-15%.
(Though, like Alexfrog, I do seem to have a 'problem' winning with whatever side I'm playing).

[Jyrki]

The ultimate proof that WotR is balanced:
138 SP victories (51.7%)
129 FP victories (48.3%)

Statistics made in France (without the extension).

The thread about it is here: (the 3rd post is regularly updated)
www.trictrac.net/jeux/forum/viewtopic.php?t=9456&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0&sid=15c801b782147928e61d1510137d38b5

I watch the players post about the game on this french thread for years and it's clear: with 2 beginners, SP has a slight advantage. Otherwise, it's EVEN.