Two interesting games, and possible house rules

[Alexfrog]

Copied from my post on BGG:
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This is partially in response to SevenSpirit's proposed house rules, and partially a session report of two extremely interesting games that I played with jimc last night.

The thing that was interesting about the games, was that they featured the most extreme luck in certain aspects of the game, that I had ever seen.

In the first game, I played the fellowship, Jim played the shadow.

I moved at a slow pace, moving only one time per turn, except once I moved twice. It was a pace that, probabilistically, SHOULD get me successfully to mount doom, but which would likely be too slow to make it there before the shadow won militarily.

However, what happened was that I was caught whenever I moved. One time during the entire game, was I NOT caught in a hunt, drawing a hunt tile. The number of dice did not matter, and it didnt matter that I moved only once a turn, he rolled a 6 every time but one. Furthermore, the tile draws were about as annoying as possible, most of the time. Over the course of the first 5 draws, I drew two three '3 damage' tiles. (But of course, not first, so I didnt get to kill gandalf with them). These killed off gimli, and a hobbit, dealing 3 corruption in addition. I wanted badly to enter lorien, so I got to dimrill dale, moved once time the next turn, and of course was caught and this time revealed. Thus, I couldnt declare in the FP stronghold, so I had to move past it. Things just got worse....he would roll three 6s on a hunt, then draw an eye.

Anyway, I got next toward minas tirith, nearing it with 6 corruption. I had split off legolas and aragorn with cards, moving them to woodland realm (using card that pushed three nations down the track), and strider to Minas Tirith (using gwaihir the windlord, and made him Aragorn). I did this becasue I realized how desperate I was going to be for a military victory, and I knew that given how much damage I had already taken, I couldnt make it without a seriously long healing in a stronghold, even with those companions to soak damage.

So I get 1 space from MT, I want to move in. I get caught, and revealed of course. So I cant go to MT. I'm now in osgiliath with 7 corruption. Gollum is leading. I try again the next turn, and get caught of course, and draw a 3 tile. I go to 10 corruption instead of revealing. Next turn I declare in Minas Tirith.

The main purpose of getting into MT was that it let me pretend that I could eventually go for a ring victory again, if the military conquest stalled out FOREVER. Jim did put some focus on shoring up defenses in various shadow strongholds, however. He wasnt exactly being negligent...
Secondly, and more important actually, it allowed me to play the 'it is a gift' combat cards in defense of Minas Tirith, instead of playing them as elven cloaks, elven rope and so on. Gondor was using the ring against the shadow!!

Starting on turn 4-5, I started drawing all the light side muster cards that draw you a strategy card. I kept playing them over and over, mustering Woodland Realm, Dale, Lorien, Rivendell, Erebor, Minas Tirith(with the Aragorn card that upgrade a guy then draws 2 cards), Ered Luin/Shire, Dol Amroth. The shadow had pushed Rohan to War, taking helm's deep, and I spent countless musters bringing every Rohan unit into play. I brought out 5 elites, 5 regulars, and the leaders, then grouped them in one spot in the middle of Rohan.

I played the Book of Marzabul, moving Legolas from Woodland Realm to Erebor to push the dwarves to war, and moving Gandalf to the Rohan army.

In gondor, the shadow army had been weakened enough in Pelargir and MT, that all the southrons moved on to Dol Amrtoh, not leaving any for defense in Pelargir. I mustered in Lassanoch, and retook Pelargir, then mustered an army there.

I lost: Dol Amroth and Helms Deep, for only 4 points. This was getting pretty late, about the time that usually the shadow is at 10, or the ring gets destroyed. Erebor was packed, dale had 3 units, woodland relam had several, and if Dale got attacked the units would retreat into Woodland realm. Lorien had 3 elites, regular, leader, and a hobbit. An army gathered in moria, and moved north at rivendell, and was going to be sufficient to take it.

At this point I had everyone at war but the elves, helped out by a couple cards. A roll came up where Jim had only one muster result. That turn, I moved Pelargir down toward Umbar, which had 2 regulars. Jim mustered an elite. I moved the Pelargir force (elite, 5 regulars, leader), and took Far harad instead, while simultaneously moving the Elite/Regular in the Shire (elite due to that one card), to buckland, to the place north of bree to meet the elite, and up to take Angmar.

The next turn, I needed only to take some stronghold with the Rohan army. It was centrally located, and its target was highly ambiguous. It could strike Orthanc, Dol Guldur, Moria, or with the play of Path of the Woses, could move to gondor and strike Mordor.

I passed as many times as I could, and then moved it at the end, at Dol Guldur. It was the only target I could reach and have a die left to attack in the stronghold (using a ring to change a muster), given that I hadnt drawn Path of the Woses ( even though I had drawn most of the deck).

Jim realized one die too late that he needed to retake Angmar that turn, and his army that had gone to Rivendell turned towards it, but he was one die short.

At dol guldur, he had 2 elites, 4 reulars when I arrived. Nazgul wouldnt have helped,as I had gandalf. I had 5 elite, 5 regular, and 5 leadership.
I had two cards that gave a free attack with the elites before combat, and then 10 rolls per round, and five downgrades. I won with plenty of force left over.

It was my first FP military victory, and it came in a game where the military route was forced upon me by the most extreme luck in hunt rolls, EVER.

I personally think the FP military victory should be SLIGHTLY easier, and I think the 'south rhun is worth 1 vp' rule would be a great addition to the game. If the military victory was slightly more achievable for the FP player, then splitting companions off to go bring nations to war (with cards) and lead armies would be more attractive.

However, I do think the FP military victory is a valid backup plan for times when the hunt just goes very bad. And if youre going to do it, you want to go sit the fellowship in a stronghold and not enter mordor. You then heal 1/turn, not get hurt 1/turn, and it gives you a shot at the ring later.


The second game, was the opposite of the first. I was now shadow, and I couldnt roll anything in the hunt TO SAVE MY LIFE. 3 rolls and a reroll? No I didnt get it. He mves again! I need 5s. No I didnt get it. He moves AGAIN, I need 4s, its 15/16 chance. No I dont get it.

Over 4 turns, Jim moved 3 times, 2 times, 3 times, 2 times. I had 2-3 eyes most turns, and half the time had rerolls.

He was caught only twice, while it shouldve been more like 7. The first, was turn 2, and it wouldve been very good to reveal, as it would draw a tile to hit him as he went through moria. However, I drew a damage/no reveal tile, to conveniently kill gandalf while he had a will of the west.

The second, was the final move when he went at mordor. This time, I DID NOT WANT to reveal him. If I couldve not rolled for the hunt, I would have. This is because, if he was revealed, he would be on morannon, and then would hide, and then would go in next turn. Taking two tiles was irrelevant, he had 4 party members and WANTED to kill them.

However, if he didnt get revealed, I could cruel weather him to stall a full turn. Then if he wasnt revealed again, I could nazgul search him to stall a turn. I desperately needed the turns, to have a chance.
Instead, he was revealed, and killed off a member. The extra tile was uninspiring.

He entered mordor with two level 2 companions, 0 corruption, having split off strider and the hobbits, with a card.

[Alexfrog]

continued...



So to start turn 5, he declared into mordor. It was a pace at which making it should not have been possible, yet due to rolls, it was now extremely likely.

My military campaign had been advancing well, as he wasnt getting much more in defense anywhere (just sprinting), and I had rolled many musters. I had taken MT and Pelargir. My attack at helms deep went terribly, 5 elites versus 3regular+leader turned into 5 regulars vs 3 +leader. And army of Rohan units came and kciked me out, to the fords.

Dol Guldur got 3 extra units on a card muster, and moved all but 1 unit north at Woodland Realm, and took it. The easterlings took Dale without a casualty, and were still 6 strong. I took all of Gondor, putting me to 8 points. This was by the end of turn 7.

Meanwhile, things finally started to go my way in the hunt. The first draw was 'give it to us' for a 1, stop, reveal. He killed a companion, trying to get to gollum.
I had a fair number of eyes, so he wasnt moving fast.
Next turn, it was an eye to start, for 3. Then a 3, for 2 damage + reveal. 3 spaces to go. I played Isildur's bane, when he was revealed, and got a 3!! 8 corruption. He hid. I played Orc Patrol and got a 2! He revealed and took 1. 9 corruption and 3 spaces to go.

I was now getting extremely lucky in drawing tiles, partially making up for the bad luck earlier.

Next turn, I rolled 4 eyes. He played a card to heal 1 point and hide. 8 corruption. He moved. Elven cloak for 0. Argh!

We came to the 8th turn. I had 8 points, he had 8 corrutpion and 2 spaces to go.

I rolled only 2 eyes (1+ 1 rolled).
He moved. Smeagol helps nice master, the -1. 7 corruption, 1 space to go.

I play the Lidless eye (which I drew on turn 1, argh!, and saved all game for this!). I made it 5 eys, so an eye killed. there were 4 eyes and shelob in the bag, the other 7 would win for him.


If he waited for next turn, he would almost certainly win, as I wouldnt roll enough eyes.
If he moved, there was a 4/12 chance of loss, plus 1/12 chance of drawing shelob, which was at least 50-50 of leading to a loss. So somewhere around 35-40% chance of losing by moving now, near 0 of waiting.

The army that had captured the woodland realm was left with 3 regulars, 3 nazgul, and the mouth of sauron (who had mustered in dol guldur and moved up there). I moved 2 regulars and all the leaders to the army in Dale, making it 1 elite, 7 regulars, 3 nazgul, mouth.
I moved it to attack erebor, which had elite, 2 units, leader.

I had one die left to attack Erebor.

I actually could have done this earlier and had more dice, but I figured out that I needed to make the attack as the last action of the turn, to have the best chance of winning.
This is because, if I attacked earlier, he would see how it went.

If it went poorly for me, he doesnt move the fellowship, and I lose. If it went well for me, then he moves the fellowship, and my chances are 35-40%.

However, if I wait for the end of the turn, then he doesnt know how the combat will resolve. With his last action die he had to decide which was more likely to work, moving, or trying to hold Erebor.

In attacking Erebor, I got 5 rolls, plus 5-X rerolls, where X is the #hits in the first roll. Then I downgrade, and get the same thing. It comes out to around 18-19 rolls on average to get 4 hits. My expectation value was just over 3 hits, and I estimated that it was in the 30-40% range of working.
Had I made the attack earlier, my chance of winning was:
.3 to .4 of the Erebor attack working, forcing the fellowship move * ~.4 chance of that killing him, or around 15%. By waiting, I didnt leave him the opportunity to move after the attack, so if it went well I would win. My chances were 35-40%.
He guessed that it was better to not move, and hope Erebor went well.

During the first round, I rolled 3 hits, very good for me.
Second round, no hits the first roll, then the reroll....needed 1 on 5 dice. I got one for the win.

An incredible game, again, with many opportunities for great plays by both sides.


So now we come to my proposed house rules. Sean (SevenSpirits) has proposed using:

Witch king moves nations down 1, not activate, and
Fellowship moves back 1 when revealed on 3+ movement on the movement track. Read his thread for details.

I tend to like his witch king variant, though it does help the FP player out a bit, so we need a corresponding counterbalance for the shadow. The move back on 3+ is an interesting one, that I could see trying.

I have another, instead, which has a different purpose, and I think helps the shadow slightly. More importantly, I think it reduces luck, by reducing the variance inherent in the hunt rolls. I thought aobut this after having two games with EXTREME variance in hunt rolls, so it seemed beneficial to me.

The hunt roll would work like this:


There is a small track on the board for the hunt, which goes from 0 to 5.
When the hunt dice are rolled, every result of 4+ gives the shadow one hunt point, which moves them down 1 on the track. Rerolls work as normal, rerolling results less than 4.
No more than 3 hunt points can be gained in any given hunt.
If the fellowship has moved one time previously in the turn, then each success provides two hunt points (still, cant get more than 3 total for the hunt). If they have moved 2 or more times already, then any result gives 3 points (again, no more than 3 points given).

After this, if the hunt track is at 3 or higher, it is moved down 3, and a hunt tile is drawn.

If an eye is drawn, it deals 1 damage, UNLESS 2 or more sixes were rolled on the hunt, in which case it deals damage equal to the # of sixes (this is the same as before...eyes rarely do multiple anyway, but this doesnt change it).


Essentially, this works by making it 3 times as likely to make progress toward catching the fellowship, yet take 3 times as many results to catch them.

Normally, if you have 1 eye, you have a very small (1/6) chance of catching, on the first move, 1/3 chance on the second. Now, you have a 50% chance of making 1 point of progress. Greater chance of achieving something, but you wont get them in one shot, its not all or nothing.

Lets compare the scenarios with 1 eye versus 3 eyes in the pool. With 1 eye, you shouldnt get them, when you do, its a big advantage for the shadow. You caught them, and you didnt waste several more dice to do it. With 3 eyes, you should get them a reasonable amount of the time. If you dont, it really sucks. You spent a fair amount of effort, and got nothing to show for it.

My way, with one die, you have a chance to make small amounts of progress. With 3, you have a large chance of making significant progress. It makes the number of times the fellowship gets revealed be much closer to the average number they should be revealed.
This reduces luck.

Furthermore, I think this is a slight gain for the shadow, to counteract to the advantage we are giving the light side via the witch king. This is because, AVERAGE results in the hunt are better for the shadow than the light side. It also increases the regularity at which the fellowship will be revealed, so that you can stick nazgul on them and play cards on them. It also allows more planning. For example, if the hunt track just went to 0, you might push harder, trying to make it past Moria now, instead of waiting a turn.

If you dont think this is an advantage for shadow, you could add some other thing, like the move back on 3+ rule, or something else, to help them.

I also do like the South Rhun is 1 vp rule, to help make a FP military victory more likely.
If this is seen as too helpful to the FP, then the move back on 3+ rule or something can help counteract that.


In conclusion, I feel that those who make various complaints about the game, how it always goes the same way, or how it isnt strategically interesting, simply arent seeing a lot of the deep, interesting possiblities in the game, some of which occurred in these games above. In many games, I feel like I am losing, often due to poor luck in some area of the game (usually hunt rolls, which I seem to SUCK at), and then I tend to come up with an interesting plan, which is concealable just long enough that I can spring it at the correct moment and they dont have time to prepare, which then gives me a chance at winning the game.

I feel the game is not terribly luck based, only slightly so, because I seem to often overcome poor luck (especially, overcoming poor luck in one aspect of the game), to come back and have a good shot at a win.


Comments or questions?

Thanks for reading...