Post by andypalmer on Nov 15, 2004 15:53:13 GMT 1
To win, you need to move to Mordor. Assuming you avoid the Moria route, that’s 12 moves to Mordor followed by 5 moves to Mount Doom. That’s 17 moves total and requires 17 dice, either Character dice or Will of the West dice. Those rolls come up half the time, so, assuming 4 FSP Action Dice per turn, and full use of Elven Rings to support this, that’s 7 turns.
However, it gets a bit more complicated than that. During the 12 moves to Mordor, if done over even as many as 6 turns, and assuming 2 EYE dice (1 mandatory, plus 1 in 6 that gets rolled), that’s a 1/3 chance for a successful Hunt on the first move of each turn and a 2/3 chance for the second move. So, at the rapid pace of twice per turn for the first 6 turns, the Hunt will succeed, on average, 6 times, each with a 9/16 chance of revealing the fellowship. So let’s call it 3 Reveals before reaching Mordor. With any Guide but Strider, that will result in 3 of the Character/Will of the West dice having to be used to Hide the Fellowship. However, to do the 7 turn win, you need to move 3 times per turn until Mordor, so 1/3+2/3+1.5=2.5 for the first 4 turns is 2 successful Hunts per turn, resulting in 4 reveals.
But, you say, the FSP can get more than 4 dice per turn. True, Gandalf the White can be brought out as soon as a Minion shows. However, it takes two Character/Will of the West dice to do this; so it will take 4 turns to even out this use before there are any gains. Assuming a Minion shows on turn 1, use of 2 action dice on turn 2 to bring out Gandalf the White, for 5 FSP dice on turns 3 and on; that changes things. However, that 5th die will only result in a Character/Will of the West half of the time, so those (now) 19 dice now still take 8 turns, so you actually LOSE time, not to mention a three-point damage sponge,
With all this talk of Gandalf, you’re probably wondering “what about Aragorn?” Well to separate and then “upgrade” Strider takes 2-3 dice of character die movement and 1 Will of the West die. So, not only are 3 dice used to transform him, but also you now have to pay 3-4 more Character/Will of the West to hide the FSP, with him no longer the guide. You’ve just made the Magic number of Dice 24 and, with the earliest coronation occurring on turn 5, you’ve added 3 turns to the FP. Add in the 2 Reveals that will occur moving through Mordor, that, with the lack of Strider will result in lost Character/Will of the West dice, and you’ve added a 4th turn (26 dice total).
So, besides moving the fellowship, what should you do? The most important Stronghold to protect is Lorien. It is both a key safe harbor for the fellowship a key territory for most Shadow Player military victories. Once you have moved the FSP and ensured they are hidden, use Musters to bring the Elves to war and increase troop levels in Lorien.
Event card play should focus on helping the fellowship and protecting Lorien (in that order). Never use character and will of the west cards to play events unless you have already moved your desired distance and you FSP is hidden.
One last tip: If you have two or more Will of the West dice, always use one as your first action, preferably to move the fellowship. “A Day Without Dawn” will ruin your day, otherwise and cost you a turn of movement.
Based upon these numbers, the best strategy for the Free Peoples player is as follows:
· Keep the entire fellowship together
· Have Strider as the Guide
· Move twice per turn (exception: stopping in Lorien is usually desired)
· Use Strider’s ability to use dice other than Will of the West and Character dice to hide the fellowship
· Do not be overly concerned with damage – you have 11 points of “extra” characters and 11 points of corruption you can take, plus 3 more for Strider if you need.
· Event Card use should a) almost never by played using Character or Will of the West cards and b) should focus on events that help protect the fellowship or protect Lorien
· Muster dice should be used to protect Lorien.
However, it gets a bit more complicated than that. During the 12 moves to Mordor, if done over even as many as 6 turns, and assuming 2 EYE dice (1 mandatory, plus 1 in 6 that gets rolled), that’s a 1/3 chance for a successful Hunt on the first move of each turn and a 2/3 chance for the second move. So, at the rapid pace of twice per turn for the first 6 turns, the Hunt will succeed, on average, 6 times, each with a 9/16 chance of revealing the fellowship. So let’s call it 3 Reveals before reaching Mordor. With any Guide but Strider, that will result in 3 of the Character/Will of the West dice having to be used to Hide the Fellowship. However, to do the 7 turn win, you need to move 3 times per turn until Mordor, so 1/3+2/3+1.5=2.5 for the first 4 turns is 2 successful Hunts per turn, resulting in 4 reveals.
But, you say, the FSP can get more than 4 dice per turn. True, Gandalf the White can be brought out as soon as a Minion shows. However, it takes two Character/Will of the West dice to do this; so it will take 4 turns to even out this use before there are any gains. Assuming a Minion shows on turn 1, use of 2 action dice on turn 2 to bring out Gandalf the White, for 5 FSP dice on turns 3 and on; that changes things. However, that 5th die will only result in a Character/Will of the West half of the time, so those (now) 19 dice now still take 8 turns, so you actually LOSE time, not to mention a three-point damage sponge,
With all this talk of Gandalf, you’re probably wondering “what about Aragorn?” Well to separate and then “upgrade” Strider takes 2-3 dice of character die movement and 1 Will of the West die. So, not only are 3 dice used to transform him, but also you now have to pay 3-4 more Character/Will of the West to hide the FSP, with him no longer the guide. You’ve just made the Magic number of Dice 24 and, with the earliest coronation occurring on turn 5, you’ve added 3 turns to the FP. Add in the 2 Reveals that will occur moving through Mordor, that, with the lack of Strider will result in lost Character/Will of the West dice, and you’ve added a 4th turn (26 dice total).
So, besides moving the fellowship, what should you do? The most important Stronghold to protect is Lorien. It is both a key safe harbor for the fellowship a key territory for most Shadow Player military victories. Once you have moved the FSP and ensured they are hidden, use Musters to bring the Elves to war and increase troop levels in Lorien.
Event card play should focus on helping the fellowship and protecting Lorien (in that order). Never use character and will of the west cards to play events unless you have already moved your desired distance and you FSP is hidden.
One last tip: If you have two or more Will of the West dice, always use one as your first action, preferably to move the fellowship. “A Day Without Dawn” will ruin your day, otherwise and cost you a turn of movement.
Based upon these numbers, the best strategy for the Free Peoples player is as follows:
· Keep the entire fellowship together
· Have Strider as the Guide
· Move twice per turn (exception: stopping in Lorien is usually desired)
· Use Strider’s ability to use dice other than Will of the West and Character dice to hide the fellowship
· Do not be overly concerned with damage – you have 11 points of “extra” characters and 11 points of corruption you can take, plus 3 more for Strider if you need.
· Event Card use should a) almost never by played using Character or Will of the West cards and b) should focus on events that help protect the fellowship or protect Lorien
· Muster dice should be used to protect Lorien.
