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Post by eXistenZ on Jan 5, 2005 11:19:43 GMT 1
At first, the poll should have considered more choices: there are 20 VPs in toltal, so many combinations of 10 VPs! Second, I think that no bias should be brought at the beginning of a game: to increase fun, I prefer to tune my strategy each time, driven by cards (that often give powerful extra mustering, move or destructive special actions). By the way, I think Gondor is always to be included into the plan, because as someone already wrote, including southrons you have a bunch of almost 30 ready-steady ameries very close to the objectives which worth 5 VPs. Thereafter, it depends on cards and on what FP does... politics, companions, Gandalf... this game is beautiful because each game is different from each other, so I really don't feel the need to state a "better" strategy: if it was so, it would get boring rapidly!
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Post by Felagund on Jan 6, 2005 18:57:46 GMT 1
I have to agree with eXistenZ on the fact that the strategy should also be defined by the cards you get. Moreover I think you have to change your strategy from game to game to stay imprevisible for the FP making him lose some dices on nations you won't attack.
Right now, all objectives seem viable to me. The last two games I play a Shadow had totally different strategies but the two work out (one I took the four Elvish Strongholds+Dale+Shire crushing all the North in ne turn, the other one it was MT+Pelargir+WR+Dale+Lorien+HD)
If it's a theoratical question (ie no cards played and a computer-like opponent) I think I would go for the Gondor+Rohan+Lorien combination.
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Post by andypalmer on Jan 6, 2005 19:01:14 GMT 1
I keep hearing about the "base the SP strategy off the cards" thing, but I guess I just have a totally different outlook.
I pick a strategy. Then, as I receive cards, they are either cards that help that strategy or they are not, in which case they become combat cards. I don't think I'd even consider changing from GRL to DEW just because I drew a few S&E cards the first 2 turns.
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Post by Martinger on Jan 18, 2005 13:26:52 GMT 1
In my opinion the easiest VP for the SP are the four cities. My strategies change in every new game, but I always try to include the FP cities. Especially attacking the Shire (if possible by Dunlendings after playing their card) and Dale at the same time is crucial, because often the North has no possibility to recruit. Three or four regulars are normally enough to take the cities, if you are at the end of the game and don't have to expect the FP striking back.
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Post by eumi on Feb 18, 2005 4:20:10 GMT 1
I disagree with a lot of the posts here saying Saruman + Witch king is a no brainer.
The FP player is outnumbered almost 2-1 in action dice at the beginning, 7-4. Adding one minion like saruman to be countered by one gandalf is a big disadvantage for the bad guys. When FP player has 5 dice, they have alot more control over what they do.
Obviously if you add one minion you should add both as the bad guys, but the only real question is prioritizing between the boost you give the FP by playing the witch king vs the danger of waiting until it's easy for the FP player to get Aragorn all the way to gondor for the 6th dice.
Bad guys can wage a great war with 7 dice, by keeping the enemy down to 4 dice and picking on easy targets early.
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SevenSpirits
Nazgûl
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Sauron meant no harm. He only wanted to draw the extra cards...
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Post by SevenSpirits on Feb 18, 2005 7:36:10 GMT 1
I disagree with a lot of the posts here saying Saruman + Witch king is a no brainer. The FP player is outnumbered almost 2-1 in action dice at the beginning, 7-4. Adding one minion like saruman to be countered by one gandalf is a big disadvantage for the bad guys. When FP player has 5 dice, they have alot more control over what they do. Obviously if you add one minion you should add both as the bad guys, but the only real question is prioritizing between the boost you give the FP by playing the witch king vs the danger of waiting until it's easy for the FP player to get Aragorn all the way to gondor for the 6th dice. Bad guys can wage a great war with 7 dice, by keeping the enemy down to 4 dice and picking on easy targets early. Let's see... Aragorn's die is completely independent of whether Wk and Saruman are in play or not. So, you can increase your dice by two and theirs by one, or you can choose not to. Imo, 9-5 odds are better than 7-4 odds, and 9-6 odds are better than 7-5 odds. That's not counting the fact that a constant portion of your dice go towards the hunt. This number might be 1, 2, 3, or 4 depdning on how well you play, but let's just say it's three. With the remaining dice, you have a choice: 4-4 or 6-5. On second thoughts, maybe you don't have a choice. Don't forget to consider the fact that additional turns (due to fewer dice per turn) benefit the FP, because the FP dice in the hutn box get reset to zero every turn.
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djarv
Easterling
Posts: 17
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Post by djarv on Feb 18, 2005 17:53:35 GMT 1
I like eumi's strategy quite a bit, which limit's the Fellowship player's die to 4 for quite a long time. Sure, he can get Aragon but the price is steep. First, he gives up Aragon's 'hide' ability (assuming Gandalf has gone off to meet his maker), or, in a more drastic case, gives up Aragon's ability to suck up 3 corruption.
Once he separates Aragon (costs a die), he then must move Aragon to an appropriate Gondor settlement (at least one more die), and then finally promote Aragorn (a third die).
Plus the FP is only rolling four die each turn, and must get a Will of the West to promote Aragorn. In one game, I held off bringing in both Saruman and the Witch King for several turns. I waited for a turn when I had two musters and the FP had no Will of the West so I get my 2 die advantage for at least one additional turn. The FP failed to roll a Will of the West for two more turns!
That's a 3-die advantage for a looooooooooong time.
The other good thing about limiting the FP to four die is he often won't get enough die in one turn to both move and hide. Again, Aragorn can mitigate this but then he won't move moving down to Minas Tirith now, will he?
And yet another bonus is that Gandalf won't be lurking in Orthanc, ready to pounce with the Ents. If the FP player draws the Ent cards early, he faces some tough decisions on whether to hold or discard those babies.
Yup, I like the Late Minions strategy. No brainer, hah!
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SevenSpirits
Nazgûl
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Sauron meant no harm. He only wanted to draw the extra cards...
Posts: 283
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Post by SevenSpirits on Feb 18, 2005 20:52:08 GMT 1
How can I convince you that crowning Aragorn is a decision that is completely unaffected by the presence of minions?
If I keep Strider as guide, I'll move on average 2x per turn (half my die results are char or WotW), and that's not even taking elven rings into account. That's 5 turns to reach Mordor, maybe 3 more once I'm in.
How can you possibly expect to get a military victory in 8 turns with only 4-6 dice per turn? (That's not counting the eyes, obviously.) And how can you expect to corrupt me if you only draw half your character deck, because you have no Witch-King, and I'm only moving max 3x per turn anyway, and you only have 1-3 dice in the hunt?
And would I discard the Ent cards? Um, no, they have some of the best combat effects in the game... It's much easier to ensure against ent-wrought devastation by keeping 4 HP worth of guys in Orthanc. (That's only two musters, and you can be glad that Gandalf isn't off neutralizing Nazgul.)
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djarv
Easterling
Posts: 17
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Post by djarv on Feb 18, 2005 21:14:08 GMT 1
How can I convince you that crowning Aragorn is a decision that is completely unaffected by the presence of minions? You don't have to convince me; I already know that. And then you don't get the extra die. That's fine with me. Well, that would be tough, of course. But the Fellowship is also moving much slower. So I might easily get more than 8 turns in order to bring the Free People's to their knees. Well... I'm not gong to ignore you completely. And there are lots of cards that reveal you, hurt you, make you discard companions. I certainly don't have to go through the whole deck. And I apologize, I don't understand what you mean by "only moving max 3x per turn anyway". Well, the Ent combat advantage is typically only against Rohan, and I choose never to attack Rohan, then you will be filling up your hand with worthless cards. Fine with me.
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Post by eumi on Feb 18, 2005 21:39:04 GMT 1
Hey,
9-5 is better than 7-4 (though in different ways).
The issue is that activating all FP nations is no small bonus related to playing the witch king. So the witch king + saruman is a great early combo for one strategy if those are the cards you're dealt.
But delaying both is also a solid strategy, to make some strategic gains before accelerating the game.
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djarv
Easterling
Posts: 17
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Post by djarv on Feb 18, 2005 23:51:56 GMT 1
If I keep Strider as guide, I'll move on average 2x per turn (half my die results are char or WotW), and that's not even taking elven rings into account. That's 5 turns to reach Mordor, maybe 3 more once I'm in. Actually (after rereading this), that is hugely over-optmistic. With only four die and rolling 2 move die per turn on average, you still need to hide. Well... maybe not, but you will certainly get blistered by a competent SP player. And you WILL need to hide to get into Mordor. Plus all the 'bad' cards: Balrog, Breaking of the FSP, Lure of the Ring, Morgul Wound (all playable if the Fellowship is Revealed); Isildur's Bane, Orc Patrol, etc. etc. etc. Certainly some of these cards will come into play. Plus the times when there are four or five eyes in the Hunt Pool... I find it hard to believe you would get to Mordor in 5 turns rolling only 4 die per turn, unless you are willing to take ungodly amounts of corruption. But hey, that's just me.
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SevenSpirits
Nazgûl
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Sauron meant no harm. He only wanted to draw the extra cards...
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Post by SevenSpirits on Feb 19, 2005 1:20:54 GMT 1
If Strider is the guide, which he is, you can use your other dice to hide.
The cards you mention damage the Fellowship, they don't slow you down. That's why you have seven companions - to absorb damge. If I am forced by bad play on my opponent's side to simply race the Fellowship, I will not separate any companions. They will last you all the way to Mordor.
If you move twice on a turn with 4 eyes, you'll get hunted about 1.32 times. If you move twice on a turn with 5 eyes, you'll get hunted about 1.47 times.
Even if every single time you move, there are 4 eyes, and you move twice per turn, that's only 6.6 tile draws. But realistically, if your opponent only has 3 non-eye dice every turn, let alone two, it's going to take them at least 15 turns to win militarily, so you can easily move only once per turn and still make it in time.
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djarv
Easterling
Posts: 17
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Post by djarv on Feb 19, 2005 2:06:10 GMT 1
Yes, of course, but IF you hide, that does take a die, which means you will be using 3 die a turn to move/move/hide, which gives you one die to do 'everything else' which isn't much. And you can't use Strider until Gandalf dies, and you can't use Strider if Strider dies (assuming a bad random draw). The chance you can hide/hide/move every time with 4 die is virtually nil. And with only one die 'in hand' for military purposes, you won't be able to throw up much for defense in critical areas (which I address later). Heh... I have several games under my belt where that is definitely not true. And some cards damage REGARDLESS of whether or not you have companions with you. My classic case is (from memory, so I might get a move or two slightly wrong): 1) Move, get caught, draw 3, kill Gandalf. 2) Successful move 3) Move, get caught, draw 2, random kill (Boromir) 4) Nazgul Strike (extra hunt), draw 1, take one corruption 5) Opponent plays 'breaking of the Fellowship', draws a 3!, I separate Strider, Gimli, Legolas 6) successful move 7) move, get caught, draw 2, separate Pippin and Merry to absorb all damage. So here I am, all of five moves from Rivendell (revealed!), and I have no companions and one corruption. Basically, I'm screwed. An extreme case, perhaps, but it seems to happen to me often enough. I'm pretty well convinced your will statement does not apply to me. 'Hunted' means 'draw Hunt card', right? Anyway, with 4 eyes, you'll get found 52% of the time on the first move, and 80% on the second (so I guess that's where you get your 1.32 times). But what this also means is you will be revealed over 90% of the time! (1.0 - .52*.80). In your second case, you will get revealed almost 95% of the time! To me, that is a BIG deal. In addition to having to hide almost every turn, and in addition to the damage taken, the cards that hit 'revealed fellowship' will almost always be a factor. This part I don't understand at all. That's 45 die total; I would be hard pressed not to win military victory against a non-defensive SP player with 45 die in hand. The other part is that I can bring in the Witch King and Saruman on later turns (turns 5-8 depending upon musters, etc) , and if timed correctly, the SP player won't get his extra die for at least one more turn while I have my extra 2. And to bring Aragon (if even alive in your strategy) and Gandalf in is gonna cost him a bunch more die that might be better spent in moving the fellowship. Umm... I forget. What are we arguing about here? Whether or not bringing Saruman and the Witch King early is good or bad?
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SevenSpirits
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Sauron meant no harm. He only wanted to draw the extra cards...
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Post by SevenSpirits on Feb 19, 2005 2:44:28 GMT 1
Indeed, lol, we're arguing about whether denying the FP Gandalf the White is worth the loss of two minions. Regarding your example with Breaking of the Fellowship: that's obviously not typical! If the FSP does break, the average tile will knock off 1.2 companions. Also, why did you break off Legolas and Gimli instead of Merry and Pippin?? I have to argue with your math a little bit. 1-.52*.8 is not .90, it's .584. More importantly, it's a completely irrelevant number. The number of times you get revealed is the number of tiles drawn times 7/16, the proportion of reveal tiles in the deck. This comes to .578 (assuming 1.32 reveals from two moves against 4 eyes). As for 45 dice being enought to win militarily, I just now went over to my game board and counted up the moves. If you assume that the Mordor forces are enough to conquer Gondor, Isengard can conquer Rohan, and the Dol Guldur force can take on Lorien or WR, and estimating a required average of two initiated sieges per stronghold, you need 22.5 army/character dice. Since these make up 3/5 of your non-eye dice, you need about 37 non-eye dice total (maybe 33 if you factor in elven rings). So, if you're really lucky (and no sieges falter), you could win in 13 turns at 3 non-eyes per turn. This is not to say that 4 eyes per turn is a good idea, I'm just saying that adding the extra eyes certainly won't help your position, it will just slow the game down and probably worsen the situation for you. Now, I'm not saying that waiting with Saruman and WK a bad idea in general. I'm saying that it's not worth delaying both of them just to delay Gandalf. If you're already going to delay the WK due to activation reasons (which is sometimes, though not often beneficial), and Gandalf bites the bucket, waiting with Saruman is probably an excellent idea. I just don't think it's a good strategy under "normal" conditions. So, maybe we agree more than we think we do.
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djarv
Easterling
Posts: 17
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Post by djarv on Feb 19, 2005 6:53:09 GMT 1
Argh! Too little coffee (or too much). The math should be 1.0 - .20*.48 = 90.4% which is the chance you will be able to draw a hunt tile; and similarly for your second case, almost 95% for being able to 'draw a hunt tile', which is certainly different than being 'found'. Point to you. Oh, and I broke off Legolas and Gimli instead of Merry and Pippin because I had lost my mind (and was still somewhat newbie); breaking off the hobbits (and Aragorn) is clearly a far better play. I think one of our points of misunderstanding is how many die to put in the Hunt Pool. Even when I play "Late Minions", I want to put only one die in (unless I have some other things going, like Frodo trying to sneak into Lorien or 'out' of Moria, etc). I'm finding that one eye works really well for me, particularly because I seem to roll lots of sixes when Hunting but not so many when fighting But it does seem like some of the debate (particularly the math) was assuming 4 die in the pool. But... assuming I put only 1 die in the Hunt, and assuming I roll one extra eye per turn, that gives me 5 die per turn for combat operations which is a huge acceleration over your estimate of 3 die per turn for combat operations. Obviously I won't always have 5 die (I may roll poorly, or want to spend a die on anti-Fellowship operations). Anyway, I believe an expectation of 4 to 4.5 die per turn for combat operations (which includes Muster, Army and the occasional Character die) is not unreasonable. And don't forget, I will be using an additional 2 die in the last few turns after I bring in Saruman and the Witch King. But back to the original question: is denying the SP player 2 die just to keep Gandalf out worth it? Well... no, I don't believe so. But what I do believe is that limiting the FP player to 4 die for quite a few turns severely crimps all phases of the FP player and is worth delaying the Minions. Gandalf being delayed (and possibly even Strider) are just bonuses. It is particularly enjoyable to watch the FP roll 4 die and come up with 4 musters or army/musters. Now that's rolling! Another part of the strategy is not invade ANY nations until all the assault forces are ready. Now the SP player is forced to waste valuable die to politically advance a nation, or sit on his thumbs militarily (no advance, no musters, basically not much except for the occasional muster card which still requires use of a die). So now you know my strategy : Late Minions (leaving only 4 die for the FP), 1 die in the hunt pool, don't attack anywhere until you have two or three main assault forces built up and as close as possible to the target, wait (but not too long) for the ideal roll (two Musters, no Will of the West) to bring on the Witch King and Saruman, and then attack like crazy! So... if you live near Oregon, we should play.
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